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How To Navigate Through This Market Cycle.
Rob gives a current investment update on March 26th 2020. Markets rebound in the previous two tradings days, but will the market tests their lows or will they stay in the green in the next coming days? Watch the clip to see what Rob has to say.
Transcript from Rob’s Live stream Thursday March 26th 2020
Hey folks, just give me a sec here. Getting set up here. I got the YouTube live going here. Just getting the Facebook live going as well. Want to get the Instagram live going as well. It looks that we got that going. Facebook’s always the one that gives me a hard time and it was welcome guys. Hopefully you guys are on here. Good to see you all get started in about 20 seconds or so. If you’ll just bear with me for about 20 seconds here. We’ll get going right away. Just want to make sure I got the Facebook going here as well. It looks like I’m just about there. Instagram. All right, a lot of people on Instagram. Good to see you guys. Get to see you Rob, Nathan, Denny, you shit. Andy, good to see you guys. A lot of people there. I’m waiting all of you guys on YouTube. Good to see you guys as well. I’ll get started real, real soon here.
Just finishing up. What a crazy week. What a crazy weekend. The markets for sure. All right, so I’m going to get started here. We’re getting the YouTube going and we’re getting a Facebook going. First of all, I’m Rob Tetrault from Robtetrault.com, head of the Tetrault wealth advisory group here at Canaccord. Genuity wealth management brings me great joy to be here today. We tried to spice things up a little bit for you with the backgrounds. Not much, but whatever better than the a white basement background I had before. Got people on Instagram, got people here on YouTube, got people on Facebook as well. Thank you, all of you for tuning in. First things first it’s, I know it’s tough out there. So today what we’re going to do, I want to answer questions, live questions. I’ve got about a half hour block for this. I want to do some live questions.
I’m also going to do a, I’m going to give you guys a recap of what happened this week. Couple things we want to focus on. Really, really a crazy week. I’ll say straight up. We’re now up 20% this week in the last three days. Just a phenomenal rally here. Midweek rally. Let’s start by, first of all, I think I watched my video from Monday and I think it turned out I’m a really happy go lucky guy. Those of you that know, can we pause it if I’m always kind of seeing on the bright side and, I thought my tone was a tad tad too negative. So, let’s start with something positive. Let’s up with something positive that’s happening in your life right now as a result, of, of this, of whatever you’re going through in your life. So give me some comments as to what is happening that’s kind of unforeseen positive that you didn’t think would happen as a result of this. Am I seeing the comments here on YouTube? How do I see these comments on YouTube? I’m not seeing them.
Am I seeing the comments on YouTube? All right. I put, I put a comment on there on YouTube. Is here, I’ll give you guys what’s happening in my life that’s positive. So first of all, the traffic to get to work, there’s no one on the street. So to get from, say, Bonobos doing a bag is extremely, extremely quick. How about you guys? What else is happening in your life that’s been a positive? I’m getting to spend a lot more time with my wife. It’s really, really fun. We’re talking about things that, all right, the YouTube chat is where it can get to see that, this is working as well. Good. so that’s kind of some positives. I know, you know, I want to, I want this chat today to be positive. I want this chapter to be positive.
Randy’s saying family. That’s fantastic. Get to spend more time with family. I agree, Randy. That’s kind of one of the things I said. More time with my wife, more time with my kids for sure. Although I’ve been working a lot of hours lately, but that’s a part of the part of the business. Well let’s start right away with Monday. What happened on Monday? So Monday I was on here four days ago. First of all questions, the floor is open. Guys, please send me your questions either on Instagram, on YouTube, or on Facebook. Getting a comment here saying that YouTube is not, our tech guy look into that. We’re getting a comment here that the 14 day quarantine is now over, but still know where to go. Yeah, I think we’re going to see some of that. The 14 quarantine now is over and people are like, Oh, I can’t go anywhere.
What’s the difference? I’ve kind of quarantined even if I’m not quarantine. Monday, Monday we saw a really negative day. I came on here. I, I don’t have a crystal ball. I certainly don’t, but it’s kinda crazy how we talked about, um, what the reasons why we don’t want to sell it to this market. The reasons why we want to stay invested. And I had said opportunity costs, the cost of being out for one day or two days. The biggest day of the years could be your entire year’s gain. I said, you know, it would suck if tomorrow were up 12%. They knew or,
yeah, I’m certainly not a fortune teller, but Tuesday we saw the market up 12% in Canada, about 11% in the U S yesterday was a continued rally. We saw another three to 5% depending on the industry in the index today. And another rally. The closing numbers were positive, very, very positive in the dow. Slightly less positive, in Canada, but still positive. So now we’ve had three consecutive positive days. It’s funny, I was watching DNN earlier today and I saw the ticker symbol Canada’s now in a bull market, we have now rallied 20% from the bottom. You usually see those, those indicators after three, six, nine, 12 months of a rally. I don’t think it’s ever happened in this quick of a period of time, three days. This is probably the best three days ever in the history of the market, but it’s also followed what is probably the worst four weeks ever in the history of the market.
So, I’m just gonna I’m just gonna keep talking a little bit about the week. In the meantime, please start sending me your questions. Feel free to ask me about the stimulus package in the U S Canada. I feel free to give me your comments, about that. You know, which one’s better? How do you feel about the package? Feel free to talk to me, ask me about the businesses when you think there’ll be open. Um, you know, are we going to be open by Easter? feel free to talk to me about the job numbers. you know, and I’ll talk a little bit about all of those or feel free to ask me about the job numbers that came out. The job was, claims numbers came out yesterday. No, today came out today, both in Canada, the U S um, question here from Louie at 20% from the bottom equals what percent fall from the top?
A great question. I believe we are about, 20. We were about 23. Uh, it’s between 20 and 25 from the bottom. Because what happens is once you correct gaining that 20% back is not like gaining the 20% fall from the top, right. If you go down from a hundred to 60 on a 40% drop, well if you gain 20% from there, you know, it’s not like going back to 80, right? 20% of 60 is 12. So you’re only now at 72%. Let’s talk about a question here about the balance sheet, uh, from Dennis. Dennis. How solid is tenet is balance sheet versus the upcoming recession and why we’re with so much employment or why so much employment? yeah, the balance sheet 10 balance sheet. So Ken is balance sheet, is certainly not as healthy as, as you know, the U S for sure.
The reason being is that we have whole bunch. First of all, we’re, we’re largely, I’d say largely diff cherry if this is Sherry, we’re in a deficit, and the, the Western Canada like oil prices today, Western Canadian select fell to below seven bucks. So that means less people buying less people selling that product, less Canadian, less less foreign dollars coming into Canada. So it’s really, you know, it’s okay, it’s good. But they’re not going to have to print money. So they announced, yesterday, they announced yesterday that they will be printing, about a hundred billion dollars. Printing might not be the exact right word, but there’ll be providing stimulus to the tune of about a hundred billion dollars in Canada. Now 50 billion of that folks is going to be going directly, directly to the consumers, directly to you guys via checks. Now there’s still some debate as to how that’s going to happen, that the thought is about 2000 bucks per household or per family or parents likely per family or per household.
There might be more depending on if you have kids or not. So that’s going to be direct payment. Now I have not seen yet. Maybe someone can correct me, but I have not seen yet. If there will be a threshold where a certain percentage of the population will not get the wealth, but they’re going to be spending that, you know, $100 billion in the U S the announcement came, yes. Well the bill is now currently, been passed to the Senate and it needs to get approved there. They will go tomorrow morning, but that is a $2 trillion stimulus package, 2 trillion with a trillion dollar stimulus back. And so that’s a lot of money that’s being, being printed there. So generally what I like to do when I do the math for Canada versus us, and this is a good trick for you guys at home, we’re about 10% of their population round numbers.
So if they’re doing 2 trillion, I generally want to see, you know, are we doing 200 billion? You know, are we kind of matching them step for step with respect to the stimulus? And in this case, we’re not, we’re not doing that. We’re doing less than that now. There is AML there, there’s a lot of, you know, I’ve read a lot of animals. I’ve spoken to a lot of individuals with respect to this stimulus and you know, there’s more ammo. We might announce more, you know, speaking to, individuals today, like the job numbers. Have you guys seen the job numbers? The job was claims numbers. They were announced today. So, in the U S 3.3 million people apply for unemployment last week, 3.3 million people applied for, EEI benefits, if you will. So that is, it’s a lot. I actually have a pretty neat chart on that.
I don’t know if you guys are going to see this. So this is a chart here. Show it to Instagram, show it to Facebook and YouTube. This is 70 years here. A weekly on an unemployment claims. This line near the end, it’s not a, it’s not the end of the chart that is today, 3.3 million right here. So this is the chart for 70 years that is today. So it’s a, it’s definitely eye-popping when you see it like that. The number of the highest number we’ve ever seen before today was 600,600 to 700,000. So we saw five times that number today. Now again, we’ve never seen anything like this, like in, in 2008 and the great depression, people were kind of being laid off over time. You know, it wasn’t, this is all happening in one week or two weeks. So the job was claims numbers.
There, there, I staggered. They’re staggering there. They’re just, they jump out of the page like this chart. Right. And expect more. I would say expect more next week. Expect more in Canada as well. We have 15 million people that work in Canada. 15 million people have jobs in Canada and 1 million of them, uh, ask for unemployment benefits last week. 1 million of the 15 million are not working. So, the question here, with respect to that, Dow surging, another 1,352 points, with respect to those stimulus, the question is whether or not the data is surging because of this stimulus. So I think the answer is clearly yes, but there’s two things that are happening there. So this rally is what I would call a relief rally. you may have heard that term. I, I’ve talked about it before. I believe I talked about it on Monday.
I’m pretty sure it talks about her. I’ve been talking about it on global news every morning at eight Oh seven, for a while. Now there are kind of three phases to a crash. You guys might not like the word crash, but I’m going to use it because 35% in four weeks. I kind of defined that as a crash. On Monday I talked about the relief rally. Papa Lou is reminding me that I did. So the relief rally comes, this is the second phase of the crash. The first is the panic. The panic is everyone mass selling. Okay? So when they blasting their portfolios or calling their advisors, I don’t like this, I’m out. And that is 35% and fully cause the quickest we’ve ever seen it. The next phase is usually what’s called a relief. We typically lasts, you know, about half the time of the drop, maybe more, maybe less.
But it’s where people are back in. People are starting to come back in and say, you know what? There’s some opportunities here. Let’s put some, let’s buy some stocks. Right? So that’s, that’s the start of the really proudly. And then once you start getting moving on that first day or that first wave, you get the FOMO factor. The FOMO factor, the fear of missing out, right? So people are now thinking, Oh my God, I’m in cash. I was waiting for an opportunity and now the market’s rallying. I miss my opportunity to buy it. So there are now, right, they’re there. They’re buying. So this is what we’re seeing. This is what I think is a typical, a relief rally. To me, this is exactly what a relief rally looks like and I think we’re seeing it now. The difference, the difference, this relief rally and 87 and 2008 and 72 and two thousand two thousand 1002 is that it’s happening way quicker than anything we’ve ever seen.
And I said this before, I’m going to say it again. The reason is because of your phones is because 24 seven news is because of social media. And I believe it’s because people are at home and have nothing else to do but to read and to get scared themselves about the market in the future. So the crash happened way quicker and now the relief is also happening quicker. The third phase. And by the way, this is according to our analyst Tony Dwyer, Tony Dwyer, if you don’t know this guy, he’s like, he’s our or uh, title is, uh, I think he’s one of our, he’s always on BNN. Anyways, he’s, he’s a genius. Uh, he sent this note out to us Monday after the market closed and he said there’s evidence of a relief rally happening. So as I was talking about it Monday, you know, he was calling it, he was calling it for a bunch of reasons here that he outlined.
But by the way, on a quick side note, so lucky to be working at Canaccord to be working with some unbelievable, the people I work with, like Javin Mirza, the technical analyst, he called, that’s bottom on Monday, sent a note to us. I’m certainly not a fortune teller, I’m definitely not, but it’s really good to have a technical analyst. So he looks at the charts and economists, not that he’ll bearish who’s kind of an analyst and he reviews everything. And then our actual lead analyst, Tony Dwyer, all three of them communicating us directly and portfolio manager who’s making decisions on behalf of your money. Being able to speak to those guys and being able to jump on them phone and you know, get the best input from the best people. It’s something I’ve never experienced in my professional career. The level of support that we have here.
And I feel so lucky and I think my clients are lucky to have the level of support that we have. My shoes right here. So I’m thrilled to have that. And it was big call that all three of them. They all sent me a note and uh, you know, Tony Dwyer’s been talking about this relief rally for a while called this. It’s happening now. And what usually happens after the relief rally? To answer your question is there’s typically a retesting of the loads. What does that mean? Yeah, it means that at some point, you know, I think generally what will typically happen is there’ll be a retesting of the numbers that we saw on Monday. So the 18,000 on the Dow or the lower number on the S and P. So that means, you know, expect volatility for the next while. Um, let’s get to Simon Simon’s question here. China is now expecting a second way of Qubit 19.
Is this reflected in the current pricing? Remember that everything is reflected in the current price of everything. The market is a complete reflection of everything that is happening currently. Emotions in the market globally. Everyone is a buyer or a seller. You’re on one side of that ledger. If there are more buyers, markets go up, let’s go down. So there are times when I think the market is not properly pricing things in, in times of panic. The market is not properly pricing things in. And in times of euphoria, the market is not a proper reflection of what’s happening. So to answer your question, maybe it’s not properly reflecting it in, but this is, we’re doing a relief rally right now. And so we’re, everyone’s buying, nobody really cares. Everyone’s just buying. So, it’s good. Trust me guys, this is good. That means we’re closer to this than we were on Monday when we talked here.
So on Monday we were talking about, you know, how low can this go? And we were, I was incredibly optimistic, that, you know, things were coming back. We talked about the Canadian dollar as well. I do want to ask you guys, any thoughts today about the CD, either on Instagram or Facebook or YouTube? Well, I was asked on Monday the dollars at 65. What do you think longterm? And I actually pulled up the email from Athleta. That is another one of the best on the planet at this. He called it perfectly like I am, I’m blown away. I read his comment. He said, we expect a short term bump. Canadian dollars oversold. Right now it is at 68 five. We expect a short term bump over the near future. And in longterm we think the USD will be stronger. Well, what did we see in the last three days?
We saw 3 cents on 68, 4 cents on 68. So that’s about 5% in three days, just on the Canadian dollar. So, um, question here from Michelle, a near zero interest rates. What happens to bonds if interest rates go up? Great question shed. now this, I’m going to get into some complicated stuff so hopefully I don’t lose you guys. There is a reverse correlation to the price of bonds and interest rates. So when interest rates go up, your bond that was previously yielding 3% is worth less than it was now because you could buy a bond in the market that’s yielding for therefore when they trade in the secondary market, you’re not getting full value for your bond reverse correlation down the reverse happened. Your bonds are worth more. So during this past period of time as interest rates were falling, in theory, bonds should have been worth more.
What we saw in the real market, you guys saw it, everyone saw it, is that bonds got wiped out as well. People are selling bonds, debentures preferred shares like we’ve never really seen. And even those ultra safe assets have fallen quite a bit. If I think the stock market, here’s a question from Derek. If I think the stock market will drop again, we not sell today. Good question. First of all, the market is closed so you can’t sell today. Uh, second of all, I’m going to make the same point I made Monday the money, the point I made Monday is that the opportunity cost of you being out of the market right now is so expensive that cannot afford to do it and it’s too imprudent. It’s not prudent for you to do so on Monday, I said, imagine, you know, you’re not feeling great today and you sell everything.
You sell your portfolio. Monday when we were on you guys and I were on here on Monday, you sell your portfolio and you’ll, you know what? I’m just going to sit a day or two out. I’m not feeling so great about the portfolio. The next day you’re up 12. Are you buying that day? No. You feel bad, right? Like, ah, made a mistake. You know what? I’m just going to wait for it to come back. It’s going to come back and then I’ll just buy back. Then you’re up five, then you’re up another four. Now you’ve missed 21% of returns in three days and that’s like three years worth of returns for some people, three years worth of returns in three days. So the opportunity costs, I use the words opportunity costs and one of my good friends sent me a note Monday and it said, thank you for explaining to me opportunity costs.
Paul. He sent me an email, he said, thank you for spending opportunity to us and why we don’t sell. I didn’t get it. I was thinking of selling, but thank you. The opportunity cost, Derrick, to answer your question is the same today, right? We think this is a relief rally you sell today. What if you sell all your stocks right? You know what? I’m only 25% down on my stocks. I’m going to wait for it to go another time. Can you present and then I’ll rebuy everything. That’s great in theory, but what if we get a kind of natural natural progression back to the norm where people slowly it back to work. Markets are kind of stabilizing beagles sideways for a bit and then over the next year or two, they just slowly come back to par or slowly come back. Well now what you’re sitting in cash, you’ve lost that dividend.
The dividend yield right now on some of those high dividend stocks is extremely high, right? We’re talking some are five, six, seven, some of the, some of the sectors I talked about Monday, we’re yielding eight, eight and a half percent where you missed on that plus he missed them. So we don’t think it’s prudent investing to try to simply play, try to simply play or to try simply gamble that the market will correct. Now you can do some tactic, tactical shifting. You can start to look at stocks in your portfolio that have checked their value. You know, there are some consumer discretionary stocks that have done really well. you know, some of the grocery stores that done really well, they’re still really high. Maybe you could consider, you know, sector rebalancing where you would trim something that’s kept its value and you would buy something that’s fallen a lot and you remain invested in equities.
That’s possible. I’m not advocating for that. I don’t know your personal situation. And as a reminder folks, you know, I don’t know who you guys are. This is not investment advice. You’re not take this as investment advice. I’m here to answer questions about the market, but I’m not here to give you personal advice on your situation. Question here on from him from Rodney, Rodney’s asking about longterm bonds if they’re going to be a disaster. Well if you’re, if what you’re saying is as interest rates, you know, you think interest rates are going to go up further. Yeah, that’s not going to be good for bonds longterm. But remember, we’re, you know, I’m not going to try to prognosticate interest rates, but Rodney, for you to be to be saying that interest rates are for sure going to go up in the near future.
You believe in saying that interest rates are going to be going up for 10 years, 10 straight years. They’ve been saying interest rates are going up and interest rates have not gone up at all. Um, I think we’re going to, we’re going to see negative rates. You’re gonna see a period of time where you’re gonna go to the bank at some point. And you know, you’re going to be in a position where you’re gonna have to pay to leave your money at the credit union or the bank. Does that make sense? You guys? Have you guys ever contemplated any negative interest rate scenario? Anyways, it’s likely coming before we see interest rates going up. Good question. Ron, you, I got a question over here from Randy. A little, the massive stimulus leads to higher taxes. It’s inevitable. I mean, the massive stimulus that the money has to come from somewhere.
Canada, you know, we live in, we live in a fantastic country. We take care of each other. So that means that our taxes are going to pay in the future. We’re gonna have a bill. We’re gonna have a bill this year, it’s either going to be 100 billion or 200 billion or 300 billion, however much it costs us this year and next to pay for the job losses, the small businesses. You know, the hospital increased the expenditures, the EI to bail out any industries we need to bail out. Someone’s going to have to pay for that and it will be us. So I don’t know exactly how we’re going to structure that. It’s likely to be, you know, tacked onto our deficit and just, you know, we’re going to pay for it over the long term. Like yes, yes, Randy, to answer your question, we will be paying for that in the long term as a society, as a crew likely to hire and governors will, will likely, you know, a larger portion of that.
But just like as it is now, hiring comers are getting tax 50.4% in Manitoba and lower income earners are getting tax less. So, I’ve got a question here from Claude. not my father, hopefully he’s not watching this, but he probably is, is it time for opportunity now? So, again, if you have cash sitting on the sideline, if you have cash sitting on the sidelines and you’re not sure what to do with it, first of all, call your advisor. Second of all, take a look at some of the sectors that are, that are taking a look at some of the sectors that are beat up. Okay. So there are some sectors that I’ve fallen more than others and are likely to recover. So I just, you know, I talk about some of them on Monday. Some of them are still potentially, you know, and I’d say be ready to invest a portion of that money if this is money that you don’t need.
If this is money that is, you know, you’re not going to need for the foreseeable future, your job is safe and you have cash or you have a maturing GIC, I’d strongly consider taking a look at putting that money to work. Maybe you want to put some of it now and you want to put some of it, keep some of it, um, or a potential, you know, enter the relief rally if you will. Um, stimulus package, a question from Facebook. Here’s the stimulus package going to affect the Canadian dollar in the short term or the long term. So it’ll affect it both the end, at the end, at the end of the day, the Canadian dollar will move. If there are more buyers of Canadian dollar and dollar go up. If there are more sellers that will go down, I set on Monday, our view was that longterm there will be less buyers of Canadian dollars for a few reasons. One is that oil is at seven bucks and is that, you know, we are in a state of serious, serious, deficit and we have a trade deficit as well. So those two together are typically not good for currency. So longterm our stimulus package is going to cost Canadians.
We will be seen as a less kind of safe country to invest. Mind you, I think all countries are going to have to go through this, not just Canada. So longterm, I think the U S dollar, we sit on our nodes on Monday. That longterm, our analysts said that longterm the U S dollar will likely appreciate over the Canadian dollar. A question here from, and I’m just gonna wrap it up in a little bit. I had given about a half hour for today. Just want to make sure I didn’t miss any of the important, stimulus packages, technical balance. Oh, the, the, mortgage deferral requests.
So on Monday guys, we were, we’re going to be live again and I’m going to take a look at the mortgage deferrals interest rates, what’s happening to credit card deck, what’s happened to all of that fun stuff. I’ll take a, there’s a question here from Joel. What happens if the U S starts stationing its troops at our border? no, I’m not gonna answer that one. Joel. I like to think that we are, we have the largest, unmotorized border on the planet and it will continue to happen if we get to the point where we’re debating that you’re not going to have a further chat. once this core, coronavirus is over, will the economy take off in a positive sense? Yes, absolutely. But more importantly, the stock market will start rallying before we’re done with this. Coronavirus. So at some point there’s going to be a sense of relief that we are, we are over, we’re going to be over the, um, I guess we’ll be over the hump.
We’ll be able to curve. We flattened the curve and I don’t know when that’s coming. You know, who knows. I’m not going to prognosticate on when the curve will be flattened, but I know we’re doing, I feel like we’re doing a lot in Canada and then the crossing on this planet to, to get there and once that curve starts flattening, that’s when there’ll be some positive sentiment around the market. Right now, nobody wants to be a longterm, nobody wants to be invested in the stock market because there’s so much uncertainty. Uncertainty will continue to breathe. Fear and fear bring stocks down. So once we clear up the uncertainty, to answer your question, I’m closed about uncertainty. Once that uncertainty clears up, nothing, the stock market hates more than uncertain. So whenever you have, you know, a company that pulls back their, their earnings guidance or anything like that, who did have a warning sign, right?
Ooh, that’s not good, the stock will drop, right? So right now there’s a ton of uncertainty and that’s what we’re seeing. anything else here guys that’s on your mind? It’s, it’s been, it’s been a crazy week. Never in my mind did I think that on Monday I’d be on here telling people, you know, stay invested. You don’t want to miss a rally. And three days, three days, three days later I’d be here saying, you know, Hey, that was a rally 20%. It feels a lot better, doesn’t it? It does feel a lot better. You look at your portfolio and you’re thinking, okay, I’m feeling better, but also don’t forget, don’t forget that if we’re not, we’re not done, and I’m sorry to say it is, there’s going to be volatility. There’s going to be more volatility, there’s going to be some rough days, there’s going to be some bad days.
Expected volatility, expect volatility to continue. And I’ll say this, behavioral finance tells you that if you are invested longterm and if you trust your asset allocation and if you trust your investment advisor, it is not a healthy thing to do to check your investment portfolio five, 10, 15 times a day, in fact, I would suggest if you trust that your asset allocation is right, if you trust that your advisor is making the right decision, that you trust that you have, your investment horizon is accurate. You don’t need to see the day to day gyrations of your portfolio. That’s behavioral finance one-on-one. Um, guys, I appreciate you guys coming in, taking the time. We’ll be back Monday at three o’clock. Monday, we’re going to talk mortgage deferrals. We’re going to talk what it actually means for the consumer. I’m likely to have a guest on my show.
If you’d like to make some suggestions for me, for guests, uh, happy to, happy to, happy to consider bringing on some other guests. Ken, thank you Joel. Everyone on YouTube, everyone on, on, Facebook, everyone on Instagram. I’m incredibly thankful that you guys tuned in. If you are a client and you’re unsure, please reach out. I will see you guys Monday 3:00 PM central time after the weekend. and in the meantime, enjoy your weekend, play some board games with your kids. do the best he can to stay. Same folks because we got a lot of weeks coming up of this. Um, and we’re going to need our sanity to navigate this market. Thanks guys. Have a great day.