Robert’s latest award given by Wealth Professional Magazine was the 2017 Philanthropy & Community Service of the Year award. This latest award is a confirmation of Rob’s hard work and generosity in the local community as he has been a proud supporter of local charities since starting his career as a Portfolio Manager in 2010. Major contributions have been made to the D.A.S. (Directorat de l’activité sportive), the Université of Saint-Boniface’s gymnasium and volleyball teams, and the Canadian CMV Foundation, a National Charity created by Robert. Now in its fourth year, Rob is proud to have recently passed the $ 250,000 mark in funds for this charity.
Rob co-founded an annual ball hockey tournament held at the Fort Gilbratar grounds every February in effort to raise funds for the Canadian CMV Foundation. Rob is the President and Founder of the above mentioned foundation and he co-founded the annual event aiming at gathering family and friends together to participate in physical activity with the goal of eradicating the CMV disease all over the world. You can find more information on the Canadian CMV Foundation at www.cmvcanada.com.
Rob sponsored the purchase of soccer balls for every child involved in soccer activities organised by the D.A.S. The sponsorship was well received and was greatly appreciated by the children and parents involved in the soccer league and camps in our local community of Saint-Boniface. Robert received countless compliments and gratitude from parents at the end of the soccer season for his sponsorship and involvement in the D.A.S. Rob also sponsored underprivileged youth to give them the opportunity to attend summer sports camp through the “Camps sport et plein air” program.
Université of Saint-Boniface also benefited from Tetrault Wealth Advisory Group’s sponsorship of revamping the gym floor and re-branding the men and women’s volleyball jerseys. Rob played volleyball throughout high-school and went on to play at the University of Moncton as a freshman.
Rob grew up playing several sports at a young age and continued through his university years and has personally seen and experienced the great benefits that sports and physical activity have on kids and young adults.
As a proud father of 4, Rob recognizes the importance of having kids involved in sporting activities at a young age. Developing physical and mental strength, building confidence, making new friendships and learning from failures are all key components to a healthy upbringing.
Paul Bagnell and Robert Tétrault
Paul: We’re back one more time with Rob Tetrault. He’s Portfolio Manager and Vice President at National Bank Financial. You’ve got some interesting thoughts on building surpluses. Surpluses that are building at the provincial government level and many provincial governments, and at the Federal level as well, and how that’s likely to be dealt with by those governments, how it may play into Canadian GDP.
Rob: Uh hm. The GDP numbers are – I think – are going to come out tomorrow. I think they’re going to be good, 3 1/2, 3.6, something like that. The surplus spending has caused a ton of dollars in the coffers, taxes now in the government’s coffers, both provincially and federally. They have a built-in buffer, if you will, of about 3 billion federally and 2.5 billion provincially, and in addition to that, we’re looking at anywhere from 5 to 10 billion in addition surplus. Now remember, the annual deficit is only 28 billion federally. So if we’re talking about, you know, maybe a $10 billion buffer that we can do there, the question is always, what have governments typically done? Do they put this to the bottom line or do they spend it? So obviously if they put it to the bottom line, the debt gets reduced, but in my view, we’ve done some research historically, and there’s actually a reverse correlation as to whether or not they actually put it in a growth market, whether or not they actually put the dollars towards the deficit or whether they spend it. We would expect them to likely spend it on infrastructure or payments to the provinces.
Paul: And do you expect that to further drive elevated GDP numbers? 3 1/2% is a pretty strong number, and that is the consensus call for tomorrow’s GDP winner.
Rob: These are very strong GDP numbers, and if you’re adding. It’s the ball that keeps rolling. If you’re adding another 5 to $10 billion, yes you’re going to create spending and GDP number increase.
Paul: Well, Tetrault, thanks a lot of being here. Please come back soon.
Rob: My pleasure, Paul.
Paul: That’s Rob Tetrault of the National Bank financial.
Paul Bagnell and Rob Tétrault
Paul: We are back with our guest host Rob Tétrault, Vice-President and Portfolio Manager at National Bank Financial. You say that volatility goes away by the end of the first week after a natural disaster. What have you seen in the past as we continue to track Hurricane Harvey? It’s obviously the human tolls taking, but also the market’s impact.
Rob: Yeah, and I’m not trying to understate the human toll, it’s obviously significant, but again when I sat this weekend thinking about this and looking at this disaster I said, “How is the market going to react this week? So, I did a little bit of digging and there was a great article that was a research paper that was put up by Ed Sollbach, I want to give him some props. I understand he’s writing. But basically, looking at the past, call it eight to ten natural disasters, there’s been a bit of a trend. Initially we see a drop off as you would expect, and that’s a risk-off and appreciation in gold, but over time, and specifically by the end of the first week, and I actually sent this piece to my clients yesterday. I thought it was so relevant. We see a small gain of anywhere of about ½%. More importantly in the month after because I think that becomes a little bit more relevant. We see a gain of about .7%. So, that’s looking at eight of the natural disasters in North America and that includes earthquakes, I should say in Latin America and North America, earthquakes, floods and hurricanes specifically.
Paul: What would your advice be to investors who might take up positions in say, energy stocks and they have come off on this news or energy stocks that may have even risen on this news?
Rob: Well, first of all I would suggest you know, I know a whole lot of the viewers at home here do this themselves, and they’re experts in this and they’re mine for sure, but generally I would suggest you make sure you leave this to your advisor, your portfolio manager because I think it’s not that easy to play this world because there’s a lot of emotion happening right now. The sell-off is likely based on emotion but if you are trading on your own the energy sector actually has a multiple in terms of sectors right now in Canada. It is trading at the lowest multiple of all the sectors in Canada. So, if you believe in the long-term, by the way, I think the energy play has stabilized itself. I think we now know that we’re in a world right now in Canada where oil is going to be whatever, 45/50 bucks for a while. So, if that’s what it is and we’re able to be profitable there, I don’t mind the energy play actually. As a potential, be ready for the volatility but there’s a lot of upside there.
Paul: If an investor should not focus on things like natural disasters or geopolitical tensions, what should they be focused on?
Rob: The key for investors is, most investors should be retirement, financial planning. That’s the majority of our clients. That’s what they care about. And then we have the tax planning and the corporate planning for our business owner clients. We have a state planning which I think is very, very important for everyone because tax rules change as we see with the Trudeau Government. Tax rules are ever changing so, that will where you left everything to a trust where the trust is now going to…maybe that’s not going to be taxed the same way now. So, those are kind of the big picture things that I think clients should keep their minds on and the smaller minutiae of the day to day, “Do I buy energy on the Monday after a natural disaster?” Don’t bother with that? It’s going to keep you up at night. Let us do that. Let the Pros do that.
Paul: What’s the market trading on right now if you leave aside things like North Korea and the disaster in Texas, earnings or earnings supporting the market now?
Rob: I think everyone who’s been on the show has said it and I’m kind of echoing that statement. Earnings have been really good. I think the job numbers in the US, they’ve been unbelievable. Canada, we’re seeing consumer spendings. So, I think that the Canadian GDP numbers that are going to come out tomorrow, I think they are going to be very impressive and I think we’re on pace for a 3% year if you can imagine that. When we sat here last year if we would have thought we’d have a 3% GDP year in 2017 you would have said that that’s impossible. And now we’re staring in the face, even with a trade deficit and even with reduction, or not with the infrastructure spending that we thought we’d get from the government, we’re seeing a potential 3% GDP year in 2017 for Canada.
Paul: Rob Tétrault, he’s my guest-host today and he’ll be with us for the remaining hour of the program.